East Midlands set to outperform the North until 2020, says report

The East Midlands is forecast to average 1.7% growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) per year until 2020, according to an influential new report.

This puts the region just behind the UK’s average of 1.8%, but ahead of Scotland (1.5%), North West (1.5%) and Yorkshire & Humber (1.4%).

According to EY’s UK Regional Economic Forecast, there has been little progress on geographical rebalancing of the UK’s economy in the last three years and the economic divide between the North and South of the UK will continue to expand (albeit at a slower rate than previously) leading up to 2020. London and the South East will continue to outperform all other UK regions through to 2020 with GVA growth per year of 2.2% and 2.0% respectively.

Employment in the East Midlands has seen strong growth, with 61,000 more jobs recorded in June 2017 compared with the previous year, with the unemployment rate continuing to stay below to UK average, falling by 0.3 percentage points over the last twelve months. Looking ahead to 2020, total employment in the East Midlands is expected to increase by 0.4% per year – in line with the UK average of 0.4%.

Simon O’Neill, managing partner at EY in the Midlands, said: “The East Midlands is forecast to grow at a faster rate than all Northern regions, underpinned by strong growth in manufacturing, professional and back office services, which are all growing faster than in previous years.

“Looking ahead, the region’s industrial heritage is likely to continue to prove to be a drag on employment, as job losses are anticipated in manufacturing due to the adoption of new technologies, but GVA in the sector will still increase from the new efficiencies.”

Region GVA growth 2017 – 2020
South East 2.0%
West Midlands 1.8%
East Midlands 1.7%
East of England 1.7%
South West 1.7%
Wales 1.5%
North West 1.5%
Scotland 1.5%
Yorkshire & Humber 1.4%
North East 1.2%
UK average 1.8%

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