Brexit could boost Nottingham economy, says report

A new study says that Nottingham’s economy is expected to grow more quickly in the 12 months to the end of September 2019 than it did in the same period in 2018.

The UK Powerhouse study by law firm Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) predicts what the impact of Brexit will be on the economy.

Assuming Theresa May gets her Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament; it says that Nottingham’s year-on-year GVA growth in Q3 2019 will reach 1.5%. In the 12 months to Q3 2018, GVA growth in Nottingham stood at 1.3%.

It adds that employment headcount in the city stood at 215,200 in Q3 2018 and that this will increase to 217,000 in the third quarter of this year.

The report, which revealed that GVA is expected to grow faster in Nottingham than Derby or Leicester, said Nottingham is boosted by large private sector employers in the city such as Boots, the University of Nottingham, E.On and Nottingham Trent University.

It says Nottingham is home to the UK’s largest bioscience innovation and incubation centre, BioCity Nottingham, which was set up as a joint venture between the University of Nottingham and Nottingham Trent University, and provides significant support for local enterprises within the bioscience industry, boosting employment in the city.

UK Powerhouse also looks at three distinct Brexit scenarios: downside, central and upside, on the UK’s economy between now and 2034.

It assesses the impact on GDP, population, unemployment, consumer spending, business investment, exchange rates and Bank of England interest rates.

Josie Dent, economist at Cebr, said: “With uncertainty still surrounding what the deal – or indeed lack of deal – between the UK and EU will be on departure day, Cebr’s economic forecasts under different scenarios highlight the impact that Brexit could have on the economy, finding that business investment is set to suffer in particular in the months following a potential no-deal Brexit. However, our models show that the UK labour market in a no-deal scenario is more resilient than some expect, as the changing nature of employment means firms can be more flexible and adjust without the need to fire employees.”