Northern housing – are government targets achievable?

Richard Cook is an associate with Pegasus Group, which has several offices including bases at Leeds, Manchester, Birmingham and Liverpool. Mr Cook leads the company’s economics-related work.

The upcoming release of the Government’s Housing White Paper should provide some much-needed clarity around the Government’s plans for future housing delivery across the North.

We’ve already seen a number of announcements in recent months including the £2.3bn Housing Infrastructure Fund, the introduction of a new national baseline growth rate for triggering New Homes Bonus payments and the announcement of 14 new garden villages announced which have the potential to deliver a total of 48,000 new homes. Richard Cook of the Pegasus Group

Initiatives such as these all have the clear aim of boosting housing supply, with estimates on the number of new dwellings needed at a national level standing at between 200,000 and 300,000 per annum. The last time such figures were achieved on a consistent basis was the 1970s.

Local authorities across the country must not only increase the number of homes built, but also ensure that proposed schemes satisfy the three sustainable development dimensions (social, environmental and economic) outlined in the National Planning Policy Framework.

This is easier said than done and in the North West for example, many people will have seen and commented on the draft Greater Manchester Spatial Framework (GMSF) which sets out a long-term plan for delivering housing and employment land. It estimates that more than 200,000 homes need to be built in the conurbation over the next 20 years, of which more than 60,000 would be built in the green belt.

With Greater Manchester (as well as the Liverpool City Region) voting for their first Mayors in May, Andy Burnham – the current favourite in Greater Manchester – has called for a “radical rewrite” of the GMSF. He wants it to increase the proportion of affordable homes built and to aim for no net loss of green belt.

Housing is clearly an emotive issue, especially when you look at the social and environmental NPPF dimensions. Other areas such as Leeds and Sheffield will face similar issues as they seek to provide enough housing to support growth.

Given that housing is so high on the agenda at the moment, it is worth considering what the economic impact of building new homes could actually deliver.

Taking the 200,000-300,000 annual housing estimate outlined above, the North West and Yorkshire & Humber would account for around 50,000-70,000 of this figure each year if you consider their current share of household numbers nationally.

Achieving this could see between 120,000 and 180,000 direct and indirect jobs supported each year in the two regions combined, as well as generating between £6bn and £9bn in economic output per annum.

If local authorities are able to meet housing delivery targets and ensure that social and environmental concerns are addressed, the long-term economic benefits can be substantial.

 

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