{"id":45992,"date":"2026-09-10T06:00:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T05:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thebusinessdesk.com\/south-west\/?p=45992"},"modified":"2026-09-10T06:00:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T05:00:54","slug":"analysis-why-the-grinch-of-shrinkflation-threatens-to-smother-yuletide-spirits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thebusinessdesk.com\/south-west\/news\/45992-analysis-why-the-grinch-of-shrinkflation-threatens-to-smother-yuletide-spirits","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Why the Grinch of shrinkflation threatens to smother yuletide spirits"},"content":{"rendered":"

Christmas comes but once a year – and this year\u2019s festive extravaganza is a mere 106 shopping days away.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the yulephiles among us are facing early disappointment, as the Grinch of shrinkflation already grips the Chrimbo choccy market.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the abiding pleasures of a family Christmas Day is collapsing into the sofa post-Christmas lunch to take in the King\u2019s speech and a staple of seasonal TV repeats and black and white movies, buoyed by the traditional bumper tub of chocolate treats being passed around to dip into.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, this year, there will be fewer favourites to enjoy as producers prepare to stock the supermarket shelves with smaller tubs, but for the same, or even higher, prices.<\/span><\/p>\n

Food industry giants like Mondelez International, owner of Cadbury\u2019s, Mars Snacking (M&M’s, Snickers, Mars Bars, Galaxy, Milky Way, Bounty, and Starburst), Pladis (McVitie\u2019s Digestives and Jaffa Cakes) and Nestl\u00e9 (KitKat and Quality Street), blame a huge increase in cocoa prices, driven by poor harvests.<\/span><\/p>\n

This was driven by a variety of factors, including the <\/span>El Ni\u00f1o weather phenomenon, climate change, the challenges of tree crops, trade tariffs and the impact of people in Ghana moving from cocoa production to gold mining.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cocoa prices surged to historic peaks above \u00a38,126 to \u00a38,865 per metric tonne in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

This resulted in hidden price hikes where, rather than<\/span> raising face-value prices sharply, companies reduced product weight so consumers paid more per gram.<\/span><\/p>\n

Some brands substituted expensive cocoa butter with alternative fats, or shrunk portion sizes to meet calorie caps or lower production costs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Others, including Pladis and Nestl\u00e9, reduced the cocoa content of some products, meaning they no longer contain enough to lawfully be called chocolate.<\/span><\/p>\n

As shrinkflation became the preferred alternative to simply slapping a price rise on a chocolate bar wrapper, the scale of its impact on consumers emerged.<\/span><\/p>\n

A study by experts at the Liquidation Centre found that of the 10 chocolate bars they analysed, chocolate bars had reduced by an average of 15.4%.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"Mars bars lost the most chocolate, shrinking by 36%. Snickers saw a reduction of 23.2%, while Terry\u2019s Chocolate Orange shrank by 17.1%.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is widely accepted that shrinkflation is not better than regular inflation, because it secretly charges you more money for each ounce or piece of a product.<\/span><\/p>\n

Both methods raise the real cost of living for shoppers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another concern is that s<\/span>hrinkflation <\/span>rarely reverses itself<\/span> by returning old package sizes to their original volumes at the same price point.<\/span><\/p>\n

A familiar example has always been the regular whine from fish and chip shops that poor potato crop yields mean they have to ramp up the price of chips – which never return to normal once yields do.<\/span><\/p>\n

Food producers, in their defence, point out that suppliers are under fierce pressure from supermarkets to keep prices low.<\/span><\/p>\n

If a food producer insists on raising shelf prices, supermarkets may refuse to stock the item or replace it entirely with cheaper private-label, or store brand, options.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shrinkflation, they argue, is a compromise that allows brands to maintain shelf space and retain consumer familiarity.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, as Christmas stocks begin to emerge on supermarket shelves, it is clear that shrinkflation is very much alive and well.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is despite a decline in demand – driven by the surge in price levels, together with an increase in cocoa production – resulting in an easing in cocoa prices, which stabilised to around \u00a34,250 per tonne in mid-2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent research by trade publication The Grocer has revealed just what shoppers can expect this Christmas.<\/span><\/p>\n

It found that tubs of Cadbury Roses and Cadbury Heroes in the major mults (multiple retailers) have shrunk by 13.6% from 550g to 475g.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, pre-promotional prices of Roses and Heroes in Tesco and Morrisons remained stable at \u00a37 – a 15.8% increase per kg compared with the previous year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in Sainsbury\u2019s the 475g tubs of Roses and Heroes cost \u00a36.50, around seven per cent less than the 550g tubs available last year. However, on a per kg basis, prices have climbed by 7.5%, the research showed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mars Snacking favourite, Celebrations, was available in 500g tubs alongside the 550g format last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

But this year, the 550g tubs have disappeared, equating to a 9.1% reduction in weight.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"However, the pre-promotional price has remained flat at \u00a37 in some retailers, resulting in a 10% increase in the price per kg compared with last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Moriarty, senior manager for cocoa analysis at global market intelligence group, Expana, ruled out a return to previous formats or recipes among the big food producers.<\/span><\/p>\n

He explained to The Grocer that this was due to the size of investment required to reformulate products and the fact cocoa prices remained significantly higher than historical averages.<\/span><\/p>\n

This provided \u201clittle incentive\u201d for manufacturers to revert to previous recipes, adding that it was \u201cunlikely that reformulations would be reversed\u201d and that there was \u201cunlikely to be any substantial changes\u201d to Christmas chocolate recipes this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

In response to the research, a Mondelez spokesperson said: \u201cWe understand the economic pressures that consumers continue to face and making changes to our product sizes is a last resort for our business.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, as a food producer, we are continuing to experience significantly higher input costs across our supply chain.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis means that our products continue to be much more expensive to make and while we have absorbed these costs where possible, we still face considerable challenges.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

They added: \u201cAs a result, we have had to make the decision to reduce the weight of our Cadbury Heroes and Roses, so that we can continue to provide consumers with the brands they love, without compromising on the great taste and quality they expect.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Morrisons and Tesco declined to comment. Mars and Sainsbury\u2019s did not respond.<\/span><\/p>\n

All in all, a thoroughly miserable prospect for chocoholics anticipating a bountiful Christmas feast.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even worse, though – and on a thoroughly depressing note – just how big, or small, will our Easter eggs be?<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Smaller sweet assortment tubs, but for the same, or even higher, prices<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":217725,"featured_media":45995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[137137],"coauthors":[46761],"class_list":["post-45992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-east-midlands","tag-featured-story","tag-northwest","tag-scotland","tag-south-west","tag-west-midlands","tag-yorkshire"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalysis: Why the Grinch of shrinkflation threatens to smother yuletide spirits - South West<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thebusinessdesk.com\/south-west\/news\/45992-analysis-why-the-grinch-of-shrinkflation-threatens-to-smother-yuletide-spirits\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analysis: Why the Grinch of shrinkflation threatens to smother yuletide spirits - 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