Why Team GB should win 52 medals in Rio
Oh the summer of 2012, will any of us ever forget it? The London Olympics had the whole country feeling patriotic, we were enjoying sports we never even knew existed and will we ever forget the Queen parachuting into the opening ceremony? After our stint four years ago, this summer’s Olympics in Rio has a lot to live up to, but will Team GB be as successful as last time when we won an impressive 65 medals?
The Office for National Statistics suggested that how successful a country is at the Olympics all comes down to the size of their economy. We may assume that countries with large populations will always do well, but this isn’t the case. USA came back with 46 gold medals in 2012, yet India didn’t win a single gold, despite India’s population being four times the size of the USA. The ONS said that this could be because the USA was able to send 530 athletes to the games compared to 83 from India as they are in a better financial position to support a team of athletes. The ONS explored the link between the top 30 medal-winning countries at London 2012 and the strength of their economies.
Accountancy firm PwC have estimated the medal total of the 2016 Olympics by comparing three factors: the size of the country’s economy, performance in the previous two Olympic games and whether the country is the host nation.
How a country has performed in the past has a huge say in how many medals they bring in at the next big event. This explains why China has carried on achieving huge success since the Beijing Olympics in 2008. PwC reckon that nations tend to punch above their weight and go the extra mile when they are host. Probably because, let’s face it, it would have been a bit embarrassing for us at the London Olympics to not even get in the top five right? So despite the recent economic problems in Brazil, their team should still do fairly well at Rio, because they won’t want to let their nation down.
Below is the full table of PwC’s predictions compared to medals won at London 2012.
Goldman Sachs also had a go at exploring the link between a country’s economic, political and institutional traits and its medal success. By taking those into account, Goldman Sachs estimated that the big winners in gold medals in Rio will be USA with 45, China with 36 and Great Britain with 23. They reckon Brazil will win 5 gold medals, thanks to the host nation affect. However, they also estimated what countries are the ones to beat at the Olympics.
Funnily enough, Team GB dominate sports that involve sitting down, such as rowing, cycling and sailing compared to US, who dominate swimming and athletics and China, who tend to dominate the likes of table tennis and badminton. However, the likes of France, Russia and hosts Brazil are catching up on Japan’s most dominant sport, judo, and China is getting much better at swimming at the expense of Australia and the US.
Below is the full table of those Team GB need to keep an eye on, as a proportion of total, with greater weights on recent Games and gold.
It will be interesting to see how the Olympics in Rio go and if Brazil’s current economic issues have any effect on how many medals they bring home, as well as if Team GB can do as well as in 2012 without the host nation luck…
