Exports set to reach £18.3bn
YORKSHIRE exports will reach £18.3bn within the next four years, according to the first EY UK Goods Export Monitor.
These results, which are above the UK average, are set to be bolstered by strong performances in aerospace, agriculture and medicines and will provide the opportunity for exporters in Yorkshire to help reshape the recovery of the region.
The study, which tracks international goods export data by region, sector and trade routes over the next five years – reveals that Yorkshire and the Humber is set to see 2.2% annualised growth by 2017 – far exceeding the UK average of 0.3%.
The fourth-fastest growing UK region for exports will see agriculture rise from £1.3bn last year to £1.8bn by 2017. Chemicals will rise from £3.7bn to £4.4bn.
The research also notes that the region’s relatively small pharmaceutical base can set its sights on big gains – with the UK specialising in manufacturing high-end drugs into new global supply chains and pharmaceuticals among the fastest-growing exports sectors, particularly to emerging markets.
However, engineering exports are expected to see a 7.8% drop, from £3.5bn to £2.3bn.
David Buckley, senior partner in Yorkshire, said: “While the UK services sector remains a significant engine of recovery, UK goods exports still account for nearly half of all UK exports, making a vital contribution to the economy.
“There is a once in a generation opportunity for UK goods exporters in Yorkshire to help reshape the recovery, tapping into the sharp end of truly global supply chains, like pharmaceuticals, and made in Britain heritage brands.
“Our analysis suggests UK goods exporters are lagging behind the wider UK recovery. We are seeing a decline in demand from our traditional large trading partners for UK goods to 2017. The US is bringing some its manufacturing capabilities onshore while at the same time competition from countries like Mexico, Malaysia and Poland, particularly at the nuts and bolts end of manufacturing, is increasing.”
Leading the UK, the West Midlands is forecast to grow exports by 8.1% from 2012 to 2017, compared to a 2.3% rise in German goods exports. The East Midlands and the South West are also topping the UK’s regional annualised growth table.
However, EY said Britain is still battling to take a lead in the international race for growth. Based on real term data, the analysis found that while UK goods exports are growing – they are not growing fast enough. The study forecasts just 0.3% overall annualised growth in UK goods exports to 2017, far behind the 1% European average. This is in part driven by a predicted decline in UK goods exports to four out of five of the country’s largest trading partners: USA, Germany, France and Ireland.
