Better growth than expected in Manchester

REVISED forecasts for Greater Manchester suggest the region’s economy will grow more strongly than expected in the coming years.

According to economic forecasting consultancy Oxford Economics, the city’s Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area – will rise to 3% by 2014, peaking at 3.3% in 2017.          

This is in contrast to last year’s forecast which predicted a 2.9% peak in GVA over the same period.

But this is not expected to lead to a greater number of new jobs, partly because there have been fewer job losses than expected during the recession.

It is now estimated there will be around 96,600 additional jobs created in Greater Manchester between 2012 and 2022, slightly lower than last year’s forecast of over 100,000 new jobs in the same period.

The research was commissioned by think tank New Economy on behalf of Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) which produces the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) every year.

Baron Frankal, director of economic strategy for New Economy, said: “The latest update takes into account the current local and national economic climate, and the very difficult conditions we are experiencing to suggest the conurbation will now see faster growth in GVA output over the medium-term.

“Economic indicators have also led to a slight downward revision on our forecast for jobs creation. There are various reasons for this but in particular, it is thought that whilst the labour market should improve, unlike the previous recession that saw job losses, this time around there was a greater move to part-time work and self-employment, and these people are expected to migrate to full-time positions as employer confidence returns.”