Expert predicts painful recovery

THE worst of the recession “is behind us”  and the economy should return to growth by the end of this year, an expert has told North West businesses.

Stephen Boyle, head of group economics at the Royal Bank of Scotland, was speaking to business owners and professionals in Rochdale, where he warned the recovery would be gradual, and challenged would remain.

He said: “The worst of the recession is almost certainly behind us and we have reached the stage where the country should emerge from the downturn by the end of this year. “

Mr Boyle said there were several signs that the UK was emerging from the recession, including improved confidence in the business and consumer markets and an increase in the price of commodities such as crude oil.

Challenges will remain then the economy does emerged from recession, he warned, with lower growth rates, the cost of borrowing remaining high, and public spending cuts, all taking a toll.

“Even when we do recover unemployment will be with us for some time and won’t fall sharply for a number of years.

“The evidence from previous recessions in the 1980s and 1990s suggests that unemployment remains high even when the economy begins to grow again and unfortunately this recession is likely to be the same.”