North West business insolvencies surge by 68%, with worse predicted to come

Company insolvencies across the North West jumped by two thirds in 2022.

Rising inflation, weaker trade and geopolitical uncertainty are blamed for the ongoing trend.

Analysis of notices in The Gazette by business services group Interpath Advisory reveals that a total of 212 companies based in the region fell into administration in 2022 – up from 126 companies in 2021. This represents a 68% increase on last year.

This mirrors the UK picture which saw a total of 1,039 companies fall into administration in 2022 – up from 710 companies in 2021, but, nevertheless, is still well below pre-pandemic levels of 1,422 in 2019 and 1,337 in 2018.

Rick Harrison, managing director and head of Interpath’s team in the North West, said: “2022 came as a body blow for many businesses who had been hoping for a year of respite following two years of disruption caused by the pandemic.

“Instead, spiralling inflation, rising interest rates, faltering consumer confidence, political turbulence and weaker cross-border trade served to pile on even more pressure.”

He added: “And despite new figures released by the Office for National Statistics confirming that the UK economy grew by 0.1 % in November, the longer term outlook remains highly uncertain.”

The rising number of UK insolvencies can be seen across a wide range of sectors, with retail and casual dining businesses experiencing particular challenges as the year drew to a close.

Across the UK, in 2022, there were 96% more filings for insolvency – 100 appointments – in the retail sector in comparison with 2021, and 67% more filings – 70 appointments – in the leisure & hospitality sector.

The pandemic and broader economic headwinds have made the past few years a particularly tough period for those working across the UK retail and hospitality industries, with a number of high profile appointments in recent months such as Joules, AMT Coffee, and Byron Burger – familiar names to many consumers and some of the UK’s best known brands.

And while retailers benefited from an increase in sales in the pivotal month of December, rising by 6.9% compared with a year earlier, the British Retail Consortium attributes much of this rise to high inflation pushing up the value of goods being sold, masking weaker sales volumes.

Mr Harrison added: “Businesses in the retail and casual dining space continue to face one challenge after another – from rising input costs and interest rate rises, to supply chain disruption and staff shortages, not forgetting falling consumer spend due to the spiralling cost of living.

“Many are also finding that they have surplus stock on their hands, as demand has dampened and inventory levels have continued to rise.

“We continue to watch those all-important Christmas trading updates with interest. Those that have under performed may need to take decisive action in the coming weeks and months.”

Looking ahead to the outlook for 2023, he said: “The pandemic undoubtedly tested the crisis handling skills of management teams to their absolute limits. For corporates, however, the debt markets stayed open throughout the crisis and, coupled with the support packages that were made available by the Government, boards had little need to approach their existing lenders with a Plan B.

“Refinancing was not just technically possible but was often available sometimes at unprecedented low rates, whilst most equity raises were well supported.

“However, we are now observing that lenders are becoming more selective on where they deploy capital and are increasing scrutiny on borrowers’ ability to service debt given higher interest rates.

“This will result in lower leverage, more covenants and tighter definitions and reduced flexibility on key terms. We are also seeing lenders take tougher stances on underperforming assets, having difficult conversations earlier on.

“So, as the market starts to tighten, we expect to see more administrations, and increased use of the new restructuring tools including moratoriums and restructuring plans. These will provide those financiers with a risk appetite the ability to buy into and turn around enterprises caught out by the challenging landscape.”

He concluded: “The silver lining – if one could call it that – is that while the duration of any downturn is expected to be long, the dip is expected to be shallow. Furthermore, we expect there to be significant market opportunities for well capitalised businesses with strong management teams to grow market share and accelerate their value creation plans.

“Our overriding message for businesses, therefore, is to understand the “liquidity runway” – that is, seek to gain as much visibility of cash inflows and outflows over the next weeks and months as is practically possible. Businesses should also consider what actions can be taken to extend this runway out – engaging with stakeholders and advisors to identify, validate and implement measures that, in time, don’t just help to avert a crisis, but can lead to meaningful performance improvement.”