General Election 2015: Conservatives set to rule with small majority

BUSINESSES are still waiting to see what the exact make-up of the House of Commons will be after yesterday’s election but it looks increasingly likely that we will spend the next five years under a Conservative administration.

An exit poll announced when the polls closed last night at 10pm predicted the Conservatives would be on 316 seats, ten short of an overall majority, but at the time of writing this morning the latest analysis suggests they may actually end up ‘over the line’ with a total of 329 seats.

That would allow the party to govern with a small majority and not be reliant on a coalition partner.

Its coalition partner in the last government – the Liberal Democrats – suffered a torrid night with party big hitters such as Vince Cable, Danny Alexander and David Laws losing their seats and a prediction that it will end up with just eight MPs in the House of Commons.

Locally, Lorely Burt felt the blast of anti-Lib Dem sentiment in Solihull where she was holding on to a slender majority. Her Conservative opponent Julian Knight took the seat, attracting nearly double her share of the vote in the process.

Similarly in Birmingham Yardley, where well-known Lib Dem John Hemming lost his seat to Labour.

UKIP had a decent night and is expected to have won a 12% share of the vote nationally. It pushed Labour into fourth place in Solihull and won 21% share of the vote in West Bromwich West where it finished second and a 24% share of the vote in Dudley North where it came third.

But our first past the post system means it may win only two seats which – along with Labour’s share of the national vote being close to the Conservatives’ – could see renewed calls for the introduction of proportional representation.

However, given the Conservatives’ likely winning majority, its agreeing to this might be seen as being akin to turkeys voting for an early Christmas.

Elsewhere locally, Labour held on to most of its seats but lost Telford to the Conservatives – the first time the seat has gone ‘blue’. All the Shropshire seats are now held by the Tories.

But in Wolverhampton South West  Conservative Paul Uppal lost his seat to Labour’s Rob Marris and Labour held on to Wolverhampton South East.

Labour was also the winner on the night in Coventry and in Birmingham seats such as Edgbaston, Hall Green and Hodge Hill.

The area’s most marginal seat, Warwickshire North, was held by the Conservatives, where Craig Tracey retained the seat with an increased majority of 2.973.

If the latest analysis is correct and the Conservatives form a government with a slim overall majority it will see this as a mandate to carry on with its austerity measures in the next Parliament.

Locally, businesses will also want to see it carry out initiatives related to regional devolution and to invest in infrastructure projects and skills training.

Generally business prefers stability in a government and it therefore unsurprising to see the stock market moving ahead on the prospect of an end to coalition government.

Bill O’Neill, head of the UK investment office at UBS Wealth Management, said: “This result is far less complicated than the markets’ worst fears. But we are still dealing with a government with a miniscule working majority at best.

“Once people acclimatise to the certain outcome eyes will immediately turn to the challenges lying ahead. Brexit and Scoxit will now become chief concerns.

“Markets will respond swiftly today and in the coming days. With certainty will come a renewed confidence from investors in a more stable and transparent policy climate. For now, let’s enjoy the relief rally.”

Richard Halstead, Midlands region director at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, said: “During the campaign we called on party leaders to build on the foundations of growth, with continuity and stability in business policy. That is now what we expect the newly-elected Government to deliver.

“There is a real opportunity to properly rebalance the economy and ensure a strong focus across government on investing in and building on our industrial strength as a manufacturing nation.”