Report finds Leeds will outpace rest of Yorkshire and Humber in 2024/26

Leeds is expected to see its economy grow faster than the rest of Yorkshire & Humber over 2024-2026, while the city is forecast to keep pace with national rate of growth over the same period, according to EY’s latest Regional Economic Forecast.

Despite a tough economic outlook for the wider region, Leeds’ economy is expected to grow by 2.1% per year on average over the course of 2024 to 2026, when measured by Gross Value Added (GVA).

Yorkshire and Humber is forecast to see annual average growth of 1.7% per year over the same period, while the UK is expected to see 2.1% growth.

The new forecast projects Leeds will add £1.5bn to its economy by 2026, compared with 2022, bolstered by the city’s employment growth, which is expected to be 1.4% per year on average from 2024 to 2026 – faster than both the national (1.3%) and regional (1.1%) rates.

Meanwhile, Sheffield and Harrogate are expected to have the joint-second fastest-growing economies across the region from 2024 to 2026, with both projected to see annual average growth of 1.9%.

Stephen Church, EY’s North Market Leader, said: “The North is home to many of the UK’s most dynamic and innovative businesses and, while the next 12 months will be economically challenging, there are areas across the region where we can expect to see encouraging growth over the next few years.

“The North’s cities are set to be particularly strong performers.

“However, progress is about the whole of our region, not just our bigger cities. And while several towns and cities are expected to see better economic and employment growth than many other parts of the country, too many places are still expected to trail behind.

“In order to spread growth, not just throughout the country, but throughout regions too, it is critical the public and private sectors work together to combine their expertise, strengths, and capabilities.”

Yorkshire and Humber’s forecast 2024-26 growth would represent a bounce-back from its projected 1% GVA contraction for 2023, with the region’s wholesale and retail trade and human health and social work sectors forecast to play a significant role in underpinning economic performance.

Manufacturing and public administration sectors, however, are expected to weigh on overall prospects.

As well as expecting some of the fastest economic growth in the region from 2024 to 2026, Sheffield and Harrogate are forecast to see their employment growth match the national growth rate over the same period, with annual average growth of 1.3% in both places.

York joins Leeds, Sheffield and Harrogate in being expected to outpace regional economic growth from 2024 to 2026, with an annual average of 1.8% growth forecast.

York is also expected to see its annual employment growth (1.2%) outpace the regional rate over the same period, despite falling marginally short of the national average.

Doncaster’s performance is expected to match regional trends, with its annual average economic growth (1.7%) and annual average employment growth (1.1%) from 2024 to 2026 forecast to be equal to the average rates for the wider Yorkshire and Humber region.

Barnsley and Calderdale are both expected to match Doncaster’s economic growth over the same period, despite seeing average employment growth of 1% per year from 2024 to 2026 – marginally below the regional average.

Wakefield and Bradford are also forecast to see 1% annual employment growth on average from 2024 to 2026, and both are expected to see their economic growth over the same period fall slightly short of the regional average, with 1.6% per year forecast in Wakefield, and 1.5% per year in Bradford.

Kirklees is also expected to see 1.5% annual economic growth over that period, albeit with a slightly slower annual employment growth rate (0.9%).

Rotherham, meanwhile, is expected to see an average of 1.4% annual economic growth from 2024 to 2026, and 0.7% annual employment growth over the same period.

The only place in the region expected to see slower progress is Hull, which is forecast to see 1.2% GVA growth between 2024 and 2026, while matching Rotherham’s 0.7% annual employment growth over the same period.