Focus: 2024 general election, looking ahead
By Beth Laidler, Partner in the Real Estate team at Blacks Solicitors
2024 general election, looking ahead
Following Brexit, Covid-19 and the cost-of-living crisis, consumer confidence across the UK has taken a considerable knock in recent years. With a general election fast approaching, political leaders are eager to regenerate commercial real estate activity in an attempt to restore consumer confidence and strive towards a growing economy.
Commercial Real Estate projections
I and my colleagues at Blacks Solicitors sense that the regional commercial real estate market has now begun to spring back to life after a slow and steady start to 2024. However, questions are inevitably being asked about the impact, if any, that a 2024 general election will have on the positive trajectory for development, investment, sales and lettings across our city of Leeds and beyond.
We expect that commercial real estate deals will continue to be done at pace over the next few months, until a date is announced for the general election. Once announced, it’s likely the brakes will be applied, as political campaigns get underway and the market digests the policies proposed by each party and the benefits (or not) that they will have on the sector. Investors and developers will take a long, deep breath and apply a waiting watch until we go to the polls. However, evidence suggests that, as in previous election years, the event itself is unlikely to have any long-term effect on the appetite to do business and to continue our recovery from the various traumas of the last few years. There may be temporary market turmoil, but we are likely to quickly bounce back with no significant or permanent effect on our own commercial real estate market.
However, what is unusual this time round is the plethora of countries across the globe in which leadership elections will be held in 2024. This year in particular, we are only one piece of a much bigger picture. If history tells us that our own market reacts lightly to, and recovers quickly from, a general election-induced lull, what we don’t know is how our market will react to happenings in other countries. Will investors wait a little longer before re-engaging with real estate activity to see what policies, legislations and changes in leadership come to pass elsewhere? Only time will tell.
2024 Party Promises
Conservatives
The Tories have prioritised easing inflation and generating economic growth. Their property focus is on the pledge to build a million new homes by the end of 2024, and to introduce 99 percent mortgages to reduce the burden of saving on consumers. Residential house builders will likely fare well, and the purchase schemes will help first-time buyers who are unable to save for a substantial deposit. There will of course also be a positive onward impact for manufacturers, traders and suppliers of building materials.
Labour
Labour has also demonstrated its commitment to supply-side considerations, through encouraging building activity. The party seeks to mitigate the increasing pressure on property prices through increasing supply and thereby reducing barriers to entry for buyers and particularly first-time buyers.
The party pledges planning reform and brownfield redevelopment, a Labour government would work closely with local authorities to quickly draw up and agree local plans to provide more facilities to cater for various businesses. Regenerating these sites will further elevate availability for logistics and e-commerce.
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