Brexit set to halve economic growth in East Midlands, says report

The largest cities in the East Midlands are expected to see a significant slowdown in economic growth in the next year following the UK’s decision to leave the EU – according to joint analysis by national law firm Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economic & Business Research (Cebr).

Irwin Mitchell’s UK Powerhouse report provides an estimate of GVA and job creation within 38 of the UK’s largest cities 12 months ahead of the Government’s official figures.

The latest study reveals that Nottingham’s economy is now expected to grow by 0.7% in the 12 months to Q1 2017 – significantly down on the 2% growth rate which was predicted for the same period if the UK had not decided to leave the EU.

The analysis found that Nottingham’s economy improves in the 12 months to Q1 2018 to 1.2% – still below the growth predicted before the outcome of the referendum was known.

Leicester has seen its predicted growth cut from 1.6% to 0.5% in the 12 months to Q1 2017 with the impact in Derby expected to fall from 1.7% down to 0.6%.

Outside of the region, London’s economy is due to be hit hardest in the short-term with Cebr revising its predictions for growth in GVA across London from 2.4% to 0.4% in the 12 months to Q1 2017 following the outcome of the referendum vote.

Niall Baker, CEO at Irwin Mitchell’s Business Legal Services division, said: “These forecasts demonstrate the significant challenges that many businesses face. All of the cities in the region are expected to see growth rates slow significantly and although there are signs of recovery as we move through 2017 into 2018, output is still anticipated to be lower than it would be if the referendum vote had gone the other way.

“These results show that recovery rate of cities differs considerably and clearly demonstrates that the need for economic rebalancing is stronger than ever.”

Niall Baker added: “Dealing with this current economic uncertainty presents a tough challenge for many businesses and following Brexit there could well be further instability.

“Although it’s going to take some time to understand the full impact of the referendum result, many organisations are already considering a wide range of legal issues in order to ensure they’re as prepared as they can be for a future when the UK is no longer in the EU.”