Manchester and Liverpool vote in – but UK’s Brexit is decided

THE business community across the North West was this morning coming to terms with the potentially seismic consequences of the shock referendum vote for the UK to leave the EU.

Although Manchester and Liverpool emphatically voted to stay in the European Union, the UK has voted in favour of Brexit.

Support for Remain was stronger in the North West than across the rest of the North and Midlands. Only voters in the two largest cities, South Lakeland, Stockport, Trafford, Sefton and Wirral wanted to stay.

Leave’s lead with 51.8% of the vote has seen 17.2m vote to come out of the European Union with 15.9m supporting Remain.

With turnout above 70%, Leave were the first through 1m and 10m votes.

There are 382 counting areas with each to declare a local count, before regional totals are announced ahead of the final official declaration from Manchester this morning.

Clive Memmott, chief executive at Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, reacted to the UK-wide vote saying: “Whilst a majority of our members will be disappointed with this result, the public has made its views clear. It is vital that the Government and the wider electorate accept this result and work together through the coming period of uncertainty. The increased work that will be required by government over the next five years or more must not come at the expense of running the country and must not be hindered by inflamed political tensions.



“The nature of the debate and rhetoric throughout the referendum period has been distracting and for the most part unproductive; there must now be a healing process on both sides as we look to move forward and determine what the future holds.



“The focus in the first instance must be to limit uncertainty and instability, and send clear messages as to the path ahead. Government has a clear mandate for change from voters, but should take as much time as needed to deliver these changes with minimum detriment to the economy, businesses and the livelihoods of the public.”

John Hall, chief executive of Professional Liverpool, which represents businesses in the Liverpool City Region, said: “The majority of our members wanted to stay in the EU and so there is bound to be a period of uncertainty now as Britain stands alone.



“To this effect, it’s more important than ever for us to regroup, respect this decision and unite as a country.



“We need to look to this as a new opportunity to govern the country and have a clear focus on continuing and building on business prosperity for the future.”

Henry Brooks, managing director of TEM Property, based in Cheshire East
said the implications of the result were “more wide ranging and longer term than most people anticipated”.



He said: “In terms of the impact on business and the Northern Powerhouse, it will undoubtedly pose challenges.



“On the positive side, the Government seems to have worked hard at bringing together cross-party support and appreciation of the value of the Northern Powerhouse concept at a political level, although there remains much to be done about helping people and businesses really understand it and feel involved.



“However, the anticipated upheaval of leadership; the vast amount of time needed to negotiate terms with the EU – and also other UK member states – plus the need to redraft legislation and trade agreements and will undoubtedly be a huge distraction that will likely significantly slow growth in the short-term.”



Economist Bill O’Neill head of the UK investment office at UBS Wealth Management, which has an office in Manchester said Westminster, Brussels, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank would be under immediate pressure to calm the markets.



“The markets will not wait,” he said. “They are a discounting machine and they will overreact first, think later.

“Over the next 12 months we expect sterling to fall toward 1.30 against the US dollar, gilt yields to fall back towards 1% and the FTSE100 to drop by 10% from levels before the vote.



”The euro and European equities will also come under pressure with the whole European project now under something of a cloud.



“One thing is clear today – the UK economy will be negatively impacted over the near term. The degree of harm will depend on whether the terms of exit are harmonious or acrimonious.



“A smooth transition of power is likely to see a deceleration in the economy, but falling just short of a recession. Uncertainty will remain, but be contained. Expect the second half of the year to be characterised by stagnation.



“A confrontational, vexatious transition could see the UK courting a recession in 2017. We would expect a prolonged period of uncertainty and consumers will very quickly sense the challenges out there. 



“The Bank of England will be under pressure to cut interest rates and/or reintroduce quantitative easing.”

Mike Perls, the North West chair of the Institute of Directors, said that while it may not have been the result that the majority of his members wanted it iwas now imperative that political leaders manage the transition as smoothly as possible. 



“The weeks and months ahead are going to be a nervy time for business leaders, so they need to know that the Government is focussed on maintaining stability while a new relationship with the EU is established,” he said.



“British businesses are resilient and, with their characteristic ingenuity, they will weather this storm.



”It is now beholden on politicians to negotiate a deal with European leaders which preserves the ability of British firms to trade easily with the remaining member states.



”Even once we have left, the EU will continue to be our biggest trading partner, and the first destination for many companies when they start to export.



“One thing the Government must do immediately is to guarantee the right to remain of EU citizens currently in the UK. Companies do not want to have to worry about losing valued staff.”  



Andy Lord, chief operatios officer of Rethink Group said: “As someone who supported the Remain campaign, I am disappointed. 

“However in my role at the helm of a multi-national organisation I know that with business comes great risk.



“This decision may well take us into unchartered economic territory but I have confidence in the UK’s commercial ability to re-establish ourselves away from the EU.”



Justin Gibbs, director and founder at Bluewater Plumbers:  “As a small business owner in Greater Manchester, I was firmly part of the Remain camp.



“The support of Europe, the funding opportunities and the growth for small businesses like mine was evident; I hope that today, as we move forward into this new commercial and economic era, we don’t fall foul of the uncertainty that surrounds us.”



Sara Wilde-McKeown, managing director of communications agency Influential, and chair of the tourism group within the Liverpool Enterprise Partnership, said:  “Manchester and Liverpool voted to remain and this outcome will take some processing by civic and business community – it’s the biggest political upheaval in a generation.



“There will be an obvious concern about the political impact on George Osborne in particular and what that might mean for delivery of the Northern Powerhouse vision.

“Many of our clients will be thinking about the immediate ramifications in terms of inward investment and the overall perception of UK Plc.

“There’s no doubt the ripples from this will affect all of us. That said, the county has spoken and we just have to get on with it.

“The one area likely to be less affected is culture and tourism – and the North West will continue to have much to offer.”

Carl Williams, North West office head at business advisers Grant Thornton said: “There will considerable uncertainty for some months as a result of this result.

“With exports being such an important part of the North West economy businesses here will want, as a priority, to see some strong leadership from the government on securing new trade deals with Europe and the rest of the world.

“It is important too that the much welcome focus towards rebalancing the economy by bringing forward the Northern Powerhouse agenda is not lost. As business leaders we must drive it forward where we can.”

Grant Thornton has more than 600 staff at its offices in Liverpool and Manchester.

Chris Robertson, partner in charge of PLCactivity at Deloitte in Manchester, told TheBusinessDesk: “If we are talking about the markets, investors don’t like uncertainty, and we are now entering a period of exactly that by definition.

“On the one hand, having the vote hanging over us was creating uncertainty in itself. But the fact the vote has now happened has created a large measure of uncertainty.

“But it’s important for people to remain objective and balanced. Britain has a history stretching back  centuries for being resilient and adaptable.

“There will be opportunities which present themselves. It’s important that we don’t put across the message that we’re all doomed, to coin a Dad’s Army phrase.

“But it wouldn’t be right not to acknowledge that it will be reflected in currency and on the stock markets for quite some time.”