Bank of England’s Bean backs power of QE
THE deputy governor of the Bank of England believes quantitative easing still has a role to play in helping aid the recovery of the UK economy.
Charlie Bean rejected criticism of the Bank’s economic forecasts and expressed confidence inflation would resume its downward course despite yesterday’s increase in the headline rate.
He was speaking as he visited businesses in Yorkshire gathering information to help the decision-making of the Monetary Policy Committee which last month increased the size of the Bank of England’s quantitative easing programme to £375bn.
Three consecutive quarters of negative growth have led to scepticism among some commentators over the value of further QE and concerns over the risk to inflation.
Mr Bean, an MPC member, told TheBusinessDesk.com: “It is very difficult to deduce anything on the effectiveness of quantitative easing purely from looking at the growth numbers.
“The real question you have to address is what would have happened if we hadn’t undertaken those asset purchases? What would the economy have looked like? We can observe pretty directly the impact of quantitative easing on asset prices, gilt yields, corporate bonds, equities, and there we can see the transmission mechanism is working pretty much as we expected it to. What’s a bit harder is to assess the consequent impact on demand in the economy.
“But certainly as it stands at the moment we think there’s some traction from quantitative easing.”
The Bank has forecast CPI inflation falling back to its 2% target later this year and Mr Bean insisted the latest rise, to 2.6%, did not undermine that prediction.
“The number was not significantly higher than we were expecting. It’s true that some of the city commentators had a rather lower expectation but it may be they hadn’t looked sufficiently closely at what was happening to the various components.
“I don’t think the number is likely to change the big picture which is that inflation is likely to continue edge down during the second half of this year and into next year.”
The latest Inflation Report last week saw the Bank cut its growth forecasts for the year triggering criticism over the accuracy of its projections.
“We don’t seek to provide point forecasts on growth or inflation,” Mr Bean said. “What’s really relevant for policymaking is not picking some central path which almost certainly is not going to materialise, it is identifying the main risks in either direction and setting policy recognising the balance between those two.”
Mr Bean acknowledged growth had been weaker than projected and that had been a reflection of rising commodity prices, tensions in the eurozone and the cost of funding to banks. He insisted inflation had behaved “pretty much as we expected”.
PLUMBING products manufacturer Pegler Yorkshire was among the companies visited by Mr Bean during his visit to the region.
The company employs around 660 people at sites in Leeds and Doncaster.
Managing director Stuart Anderson said: “It’s been important for us they have kept interest rates low which creates the right environment for business.
“As an exporter stability of currency is also important for us and because of quantitative easing the pound weakened slightly which was very useful for us.
“We purchase approximately £40m of commodities every year which is copper and zinc largely and they are traded in dollars so its very imporatn we have stability in that relationshio. The more QE the Bank does probably the more favourable it will be at keeping the pound at a reasonable trading level.”
Mr Anderson said he was hoping the Bank could also use its influence with Government to make the case for increased spending on UK infrastructure.
